Thanassis Cambanis

New York

Senior Fellow, The Century Foundation and Writer at Freelance

Director of @CenturyIntl, senior fellow @TCFdotorg. Books: Iraq war (forthcoming), Once Upon a Revolution, Hezbollah, Hybrid Actors, Citizenship & Discontents.

Articles

The Axis of Resistance Returns to Its Local Roots

2 months ago | tcf.org | Veena Ali-Khan |Thanassis Cambanis

The Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” has suffered a year and a half of withering setbacks. Now, its future is more uncertain than ever before. Faced with the most serious threat in its history, the alliance’s core groups—Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen—are turning back to basics: local power. The Axis of Resistance spans a wide variety of states and sub-state groups that share some common enemies. But not all members are equally aligned.
Cross-Border Shuffle: Refugee Movement Between Lebanon and Syria after Assad

2 months ago | tcf.org | Veena Ali-Khan |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller

The demography of both Lebanon and Syria is in flux, after the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Thousands of people are now on the move, inside the two countries and across their shared border—in both directions. Since Syrian rebels toppled the Assad government on December 8, hundreds of thousands of people have crossed the Syrian–Lebanese border—both Syrian refugees in Lebanon returning home, and Syrians and Lebanese escaping the new Syria.
Will Gulf Countries Think Trump's Glitter Is Gold?

Mar 24, 2025 | tcf.org | Sajad Jiyad |Nicholas Danforth |Veena Ali-Khan |Thanassis Cambanis

Donald Trump has quickly made it clear that the guiding light in his relationships with Arab countries of the Gulf will be his trademark transactionalism. In the first days of his new term, he announced that he was entertaining the idea of Saudi Arabia being his first foreign destination—if the Kingdom helped bring down oil prices and increased its investments in the United States to $1 trillion.
Down but Not Out: Reassessing the Axis of Resistance

Mar 19, 2025 | tcf.org | Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller |Sajad Jiyad

The events of the last year have upended many assumptions about the Axis of Resistance, the loosely defined network of Iran and its core partners. For as long as the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to export revolution and project power in the Arab Middle East, surprisingly persistent debates have raged over core questions. Did Iran tightly command a network of proxies and dependents—or did it stand at the center of a loose network of like-minded groups and opportunistic fellow travelers?
Will Sectarian Massacres Derail Syria’s Transition?

Mar 11, 2025 | tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Sam Heller |Thanassis Cambanis |Haley Bobseine

Century International: On Thursday, March 6, Syria’s new rulers began a military crackdown on what they described as a nascent insurgency by supporters of the deposed Assad regime in the coastal region. In the violence that ensued, hundreds of civilians were killed, in addition to large numbers of both pro- and anti-government combatants. Credible evidence implicates regime militias in sectarian massacres of Alawite Syrians. How widespread is sectarian violence? Is it ongoing?
Iraq Walks a Tightrope into the New Trump Era

Mar 3, 2025 | tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Haley Bobseine

Donald Trump’s second presidency promises another four-year tightrope walk for Iraq. More than two decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply linked, if not dependent, on American security institutions, markets, and banks. Yet it also has strong historical, cultural, economic, and security ties—not to mention a 1,000-mile border—with Iran, which Trump is again poised to treat as an enemy.
Assad Is Gone-But for Refugees to Return, the World Needs to Invest in Syria’s Peace

Feb 3, 2025 | tcf.org | Muhannad Ayyash |Sam Heller |Peter Salisbury |Thanassis Cambanis

The dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad has fallen. Now, many of the 6.2 million Syrian refugees abroad—more than a quarter of the country’s prewar population—are thinking, finally, about going home. Whether in muddy refugee camps, crowded working-class neighborhoods in Istanbul, Beirut, and Amman, or distant European cities, they have been following the dramatic news out of Damascus and entertaining the idea, perhaps for the first time, that their children will know Syria.
Two States, Together: An Alternative Vision for Palestinians and Israelis

Jan 27, 2025 | tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller

After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s maximalist response, it is clearer than ever that in conflict and geopolitics, the unimaginable can rapidly become reality, in the Middle East and all over the world. No violent conflict can again be considered “manageable.” But transformation isn’t always for the worse. In Syria, the entrenched dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly collapsed in December, opening up paths toward better governance and a rebalanced regional order.
The Progressive Foreign Policy Agenda Is in Shambles. It’s Time to Confront the Crisis.

Jan 13, 2025 | tcf.org | Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Peter Salisbury |Sam Heller

The progressive foreign policy agenda is in a dark place. Trump has successfully challenged the international system from the right and frustrated the progressive formulations against endless war. He has changed global dynamics and America’s domestic politics for the worse in ways that will echo long after his second term ends. If nothing else, this troubling moment offers an opportunity for clarity. Progressives have two main challenges to face.
Syria’s Civil War Has Roared Back. How Far Can the Rebels Go?

Dec 6, 2024 | tcf.org | Muhannad Ayyash |Dalia Hatuqa |Peter Salisbury |Thanassis Cambanis

Seemingly out of the blue, Syrian rebels made a swift comeback campaign against the Assad regime in the last week of November. After years as a “frozen conflict,” in a few short weeks more has changed on the ground in a matter of days than at any point in the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011.