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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Sajad Jiyad |Nicholas Danforth |Veena Ali-Khan |Thanassis Cambanis
Donald Trump has quickly made it clear that the guiding light in his relationships with Arab countries of the Gulf will be his trademark transactionalism. In the first days of his new term, he announced that he was entertaining the idea of Saudi Arabia being his first foreign destination—if the Kingdom helped bring down oil prices and increased its investments in the United States to $1 trillion.
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Aron Lund |Sam Heller |Nicholas Danforth |Sajad Jiyad
The new masters of Sayida Zaynab, a famous Shia shrine in the countryside outside Damascus, strode with confidence across the nearly empty marble courtyard, ignoring audible grumbles from the few remaining pilgrims and staffers. Abu Omar, the shrine’s new head of security, wears his beard long and ragged, in a style often associated with purist Sunnis.
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Sam Heller |Thanassis Cambanis |Haley Bobseine
Century International: On Thursday, March 6, Syria’s new rulers began a military crackdown on what they described as a nascent insurgency by supporters of the deposed Assad regime in the coastal region. In the violence that ensued, hundreds of civilians were killed, in addition to large numbers of both pro- and anti-government combatants. Credible evidence implicates regime militias in sectarian massacres of Alawite Syrians. How widespread is sectarian violence? Is it ongoing?
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Haley Bobseine
Donald Trump’s second presidency promises another four-year tightrope walk for Iraq. More than two decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply linked, if not dependent, on American security institutions, markets, and banks. Yet it also has strong historical, cultural, economic, and security ties—not to mention a 1,000-mile border—with Iran, which Trump is again poised to treat as an enemy.
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1 month ago | 
tcf.org | Sam Heller |Nicholas Danforth |Aron Lund |Veena Ali-Khan
American relations with Turkey have always contained contradictions. As Donald Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism, it’s hard to know what U.S.–Turkey trend will win out: a deepening authoritarian embrace with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or increasing enmity grounded in opposing regional goals and cultural prejudice. Either way, the results will almost certainly be bad. But even in this grim moment, there are small opportunities.
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2 months ago | 
tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Aron Lund |Emily McGrath |Michele Evermore
As President Trump threatens to slap steep tariffs on many countries, he is boasting that his taxes on imports will be a boon to the U.S. economy, but most economists strongly disagree—many say Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation, slow economic growth, hurt U.S. workers and result in American consumers footing the bill for his tariffs.
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2 months ago | 
tcf.org | Nicholas Danforth |Thanassis Cambanis |Aron Lund |Sam Heller
After Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s maximalist response, it is clearer than ever that in conflict and geopolitics, the unimaginable can rapidly become reality, in the Middle East and all over the world. No violent conflict can again be considered “manageable.” But transformation isn’t always for the worse. In Syria, the entrenched dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad spectacularly collapsed in December, opening up paths toward better governance and a rebalanced regional order.
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Oct 30, 2024 | 
brookings.edu | Nicholas Danforth
The last four years have helped consolidate low-key estrangement as the new normal in U.S.-Turkish relations. After decades of worrying about losing Turkey, Washington has now lowered its expectations for Turkish cooperation while seeking simply to avert new crises. So long as Turkey avoids actively supporting U.S. rivals, picking fights with U.S. partners, or blocking key NATO business, this status quo can work for Washington.
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Mar 1, 2024 | 
newlinesmag.com | Nicholas Danforth
The story involves a lapsed actor, former Mormon abolitionist and hard-drinking Zionist prophet who sets off from Maine in 1866 to colonize Palestine. He fails spectacularly and his followers, after facing disease, bandits and financial ruin, end up on a ship home with a highly amused Mark Twain. Not surprisingly, the would-be colonists’ misadventure has attracted some interest over the years.
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Jan 5, 2024 | 
warontherocks.com | Michael Kofman |Nicholas Danforth
Nick sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss where the Russo-Ukrainian conflict stands at the start of 2024. They talked through the situation on the front lines, naval developments in the Black Sea and Russia’s cynical diplomacy, as well as Moscow’s growing munitions advantage and what went wrong with the Ukrainian offensive.
