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1 month ago | 
cepa.org | Anda Bologa |Kurt Volker |Timothy Garton Ash |Sergiy Makogon
The Trump administration assault on US development aid poses Europe with a steep challenge to limit China’s attempt to dominate developing world infrastructure. Its answer is the Global Gateway, a massive plan for €300 billion in global investments by 2027. At its best, Global Gateway could foster equitable connectivity: robust labor and environmental standards. At its worst, it risks being little more than a paper tiger.
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2 months ago | 
cepa.org | Timothy Garton Ash |Sergiy Makogon |Martin Vladimirov |Maciej Bukowski
Stalling by the European Central Bank (ECB) and some European treasury departments, which have starved Ukraine of the resources to win, might now result in Ukraine’s defeat. Combined with a cutoff or slowdown in US aid, this could result in catastrophic consequences for the European political economy and confidence in the euro. Think of multiple millions of millions of Ukrainians fleeing westward, straining European social, economic, and political systems to breaking point.
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2 months ago | 
atlanticcouncil.org | Olga Khakova |Haley Nelson |Sergiy Makogon
Just a few weeks into 2025, two significant efforts to stifle Russia’s energy revenues have already taken place. Both carry major energy security and geopolitical ramifications. On January 10, the US Treasury Department announced the most significant sanctions on Russian oil since 2014. And on January 1, over the objections of Moscow, a contract allowing for pipeline deliveries of Russian natural gas across Ukraine and into the European Union expired.
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Jan 13, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Edward Lucas |Andrei Soldatov |Irina Borogan |Sergiy Makogon
International summits finish with a “family photo”. But the picture marking the end of the G7’s seaside get-together in Japan in May 2016 looks like the opening scene of a disaster movie. The assembled world leaders were mulling what seem by today’s standards minor and malleable problems, not the tsunamis that were racing towards them. Cameron, Hollande, Juncker, Merkel, Renzi — all are gone now. True, Donald Tusk, then the EU Council President, is now Poland’s prime minister.
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Jan 10, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Aura Sabadus |Sergiy Makogon |Benjamin Schmitt
The smooth expiry of Ukraine’s Russian gas transit agreement on January 1 should have been the welcome conclusion to a long chapter in Europe’s turbulent energy partnership with Moscow. Contrary to doom-and-gloom predictions of soaring energy bills, prices have been falling, and Europe’s energy infrastructure is adapting well. Encouraging as it may seem, it may just be the calm before the storm. Winter has barely begun, and the EU is already braced for a sequence of possible crises.
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Jan 10, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Sergiy Makogon |Aura Sabadus |Benjamin Schmitt |Ronan Murphy
Ukraine has taken a decisive step by ending the transit of Russian gas. It aims to deprive the Kremlin of around $6.5bn in revenue from energy exports — money that is used for armaments to kill its citizens. What of the European Union (EU)? It has not had the same courage. EU imports of Russian gas increased last year, especially supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is cheaper than its US equivalent but comes at the cost of arming Russia.
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Jan 7, 2025 | 
cepa.org | Walter C. Clemens |Sergiy Makogon |David Kirichenko |Dorka Takacsy
Both Putin and the Syrian dictator were elected in rigged ballots in 2000. Now Bashar Assad sits in exile with a reportedly unhappy wife amidst the cold of a Moscow winter. He has been granted asylum by Putin, but his presence is an unwelcome reminder of the Russian despot’s failed imperial dreams in the Middle East. Only weeks ago, Assad seemed to the world just as secure as his new host. Now, inevitably, some question whether Putin’s fall might come just as suddenly and unexpectedly.
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Dec 19, 2024 | 
cepa.org | Sergiy Makogon |Aura Sabadus |Benjamin Schmitt |Ronan Murphy
Over the past 50 years, Russia has abused Ukraine and Europe’s dependence on gas supplies and transit revenues to extort political concessions, spread corruption, and exert malign influence. It cut off exports on numerous occasions, triggering disruption across Europe and freezing millions of consumers during exceptionally harsh winters.
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Dec 19, 2024 | 
homin.ca | Sergiy Makogon |Aura Sabadus |Benjamin Schmitt
Home » Commentary 07.01.2025Betraying Ukraine for ‘Blood Gas’On January 1, Ukraine can sever one of its last remaining ties with Russia if it ignores a last-minute campaign by Moscow’s friends in the West.
By Sergiy Makogon, Aura Sabadus, and Benjamin Schmitt
December 19, 2024.
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Dec 10, 2024 | 
cepa.org | Clara Riedenstein |Aura Sabadus |Sergiy Makogon |Maciej Bukowski
Billions of euros of data center investments are pouring into Ireland, home to European big tech headquarters. But the centers gobble up energy, straining the country’s electricity grid. Irish lawmakers have responded by placing a moratorium on new data center projects until the end of the decade. Both European and US governments and the leading cloud computing firms led by Google, Amazon and Microsoft, are struggling to keep data centers running without breaking their clean energy commitments.
