Carsten Brzeski

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Bert Colijn |Carsten Brzeski

With low growth and ageing societies, boosting productivity growth is key to economic prosperity in the eurozone in the years ahead. And that’s where AI comes in. Productivity has declined by 1.6% since the third quarter of 2022. This has come with a tight labour market by historical standards, as unemployment has dropped to the historical low of 6.1%. And with populations ageing, the chances of growth in the active population are small.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

This is hard to watch Let me be clear: I love America. I grew up in the American sector of West Berlin, listening to AFN Berlin, getting my first marshmallows in the GI's grocery store on Truman Plaza before it was closed to locals after the La Belle attack, and watching American movies in the Outpost movie theatre.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

If you've ever tried to fix your laptop with a sledgehammer, you'll know the chances of fixing it properly are close to zero. The damage is done. And that, says ING's Carsten Brzeski, is where the global economy is right now, surveying the mess. America is facing an imminent inflationary shock, while Europe has the opposite problem. The related uncertainty will weigh on economies worldwide. We could, of course, be seeing real, historic structural change that only happens every few decades.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Carsten Brzeski |James Smith

President Trump’s tariffs will undoubtedly put up prices of imported goods, and there will be higher service prices too, such as repair and insurance of those goods. However, the hit to growth from tariffs via business uncertainty and the squeeze on consumer spending power, at a time when the government is implementing sweeping spending cuts, means that unemployment is likely to rise by more than the Fed had previously expected.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

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