Carsten Brzeski

Berlin, Germany

Chief Economist ING Germany. Global Head Macro Research ING. CES Harvard. Mainly comments on the German and European economy. All views are, no doubt, my own.

Articles

More optimism in Germany as Ifo index increases for sixth consecutive month

4 days ago | fxstreet.com | Carsten Brzeski

Is this wishful thinking or a fundamental change? Germany's most prominent leading indicator increased for the sixth consecutive month on hopes that fiscal stimulus will boost growth. It's still uncertain whether German businesses are eagerly seeking a dose of optimism or if a fundamental shift is currently taking place. In any case, German business sentiment continues to improve.
US strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran: What it means for macro and markets

5 days ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski |Warren Patterson |Francesco Pesole |James Knightley

On Sunday morning, the conflict in the Middle East escalated further with the US bombing three nuclear facilities in Iran. US President Donald Trump called the strikes “very successful” and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that the US had “obliterated” the facilities, while Iran reported only limited damage. This leaves us with the all-too-familiar sense that we understand far less than we thought we did this morning.
Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly nosedives in April

2 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

Eurozone industrial production dropped sharply in April, partly wiping out the front-loading surge of the first quarter After an impressive first quarter, eurozone industrial production staged an expected nosedive in April, dropping by 2.4% month-on-month. On the year, it is still up by 0.8%. After the strong surge in the first quarter on the back of US front-loading of eurozone goods ahead of higher tariffs, industrial production showed the expected reversal.
ING Monthly: A blockbuster plot worth following

2 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
A blockbuster plot worth following

2 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

What are we watching? As a self-declared movie buff, I love nothing more than settling into any new movie. Recently, I watched the latest instalment in the seemingly endless Mission: Impossible series: The Final Reckoning. Tom Cruise, still sprinting like it’s 1996, takes on a new villain: AI. The film delivers what you’d expect: high-octane stunts, explosions, and a plot so elusive it might as well have been classified. I left the theatre wondering what exactly I had just watched.
German April macro data disappoints

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

Today’s industrial production data reflects the feared reversal of the frontloading effect of the first quarter and suggests that the structural weakness in industry is not over, yet. At the same time, however, there are growing indications that the German industrial cycle is gradually turning, as industrial orders have also improved and inventory levels have started to fall.
ECB cuts rates by 25bp as risk of inflation undershooting increases

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

The ECB has cut interest rates once again, bringing the deposit rate to 2%, from 2.25%. As the risk of inflation undershooting target has clearly increased, today's rate cut will not be the last The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates to the lowest level since December 2022, bringing the deposit rate to 2%, from 2.25%. Rapidly fading inflationary pressures have given the ECB ample room to bring interest rates into neutral territory.
German industrial orders in April point to continued cyclical recovery of industry

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

April was another good month for German industry. The increase in order books suggests the cyclical recovery of German industry continues German industrial orders increased by 0.6% month-on-month in April, from 3.4% MoM in March, suggesting that the cyclical turning in industry is currently more than just trade-driven frontloading. On the year, orders were up by 4.8%.
Listen: The Trump Effect - A global economy gripped by uncertainty

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Carsten Brzeski |Chris Turner |James Smith

The Trump administration appears to be powering through on its promise to impose sweeping tariff measures despite recent court rulings contesting their legality, but the form they’re set to take remains deeply unclear. How these developments will feed through into the global economy is yet to be determined, but what we do know is that the uncertainty is taking a toll on consumer and business sentiment, fuelling market volatility, and complicating the work of central bankers.
ECB signals a summer pause after today’s rate cut

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates to the lowest level since December 2022, bringing the deposit rate to 2%, from 2.25%. Rapidly fading inflationary pressures have given the ECB ample room to bring interest rates into neutral territory.