James Knightley

6 days ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Valentin Tataru

What could go wrong? Folks, let me tell you, it’s huge. A biggly, very beautiful thing, announced just this Thursday. Some great people from great nations involved. Tremendous numbers, some say the best numbers we’ve ever seen; it’s incredible. I’m referring, of course, to the latest ING Monthly, hot off the press this week, containing all our new forecasts. Here are the headlines:No US or eurozone recession, though both are headed for stagnation.

1 week ago | fxstreet.com | James Knightley

Financial markets have bounced back after the chaos and confusion of 'Liberation Day', on optimism that trade deals will be signed and tax cuts will be agreed. But the collapse in economic sentiment suggests these agreements need to materialise quickly to prevent a downturn. US President Donald Trump’s decision to rewrite the rules on trade is having a clear impact, not just on trade partners, but on the US economy too.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley

Sentiment sours on trade and inflation uncertainty US President Donald Trump’s decision to rewrite the rules on trade is having a clear impact, not just on trade partners, but on the US economy too. First quarter US GDP was dragged down by a surge in imports as US companies sought to bring as much product in as possible ahead of the imposition of tariffs.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Inga Fechner

The UK-US deal offers Britain much needed relief from sectoral tariffs President Trump has revealed that the UK is the first country to receive carve-outs from some – though crucially not all – of the tariffs he has introduced over recent months. At face value, the UK seems to have done quite well – at least relative to the reports circulating in recent days. According to the UK’s press release, tariffs on British steel and aluminium go to zero, with no talk of quotas.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Padhraic Garvey |Francesco Pesole

Fed leaves rates unchanged, but highlights elevated uncertainty The Federal Reserve has left monetary policy unchanged with the Fed funds target rate range remaining at 4.25-4.50%. It was a unanimous decision with the accompanying press release stating that the economy continues to "expand at a solid pace", labour market conditions remain "solid" while inflation "remains somewhat elevated". All this phraseology is the same as last time.