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6 days ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Francesco Pesole |Chris Turner
It’s been a good second half of the week for the dollar, mostly thanks to positive trade news and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The next big catalyst for the dollar will be the outcome of initial US-China trade talks, but US equities have already drawn some support from US President Donald Trump’s more upbeat tone on upcoming negotiations with Beijing and the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Chris Turner |Francesco Pesole |František Táborský
Following a social media post from President Trump last night that a major trade deal would be announced at 16CET/10ET today, speculation is rife that it will be a US-UK agreement. While US-UK trade relations are not usually a material driver of global financial markets, today's deal may have more impact than usual. In focus will primarily be whether the 10% baseline US tariffs in place under the current 'paused' conditions can be negotiated away.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Chris Turner |František Táborský |Francesco Pesole
Last night's news that the US and China would begin formal trade talks on 10-11 May to de-escalate the tariff war saw the dollar briefly spike 0.4/0.5%. Remember that in April, the defensive yen and Swiss franc currencies were the big beneficiaries of 'reciprocal' tariffs and the uniform sell-off in US asset markets. In theory, then, de-escalation should see USD/JPY and USD/CHF lead the recovery.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Francesco Pesole |František Táborský |Chris Turner
The most notable development in FX over the past few days has been the exceptional rally in the Taiwanese dollar, and to a lesser extent in other Asian currencies (MYR, THB, KRW). The trigger has apparently been a widespread concern among Taiwan’s USD-rich corporates and investors (life insurance, above all) that a trade deal with the US would include the request for a weaker USD/TWD. That has so far been ruled out by Taiwanese authorities.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | Francesco Pesole |František Táborský |Chris Turner
The dollar has gathered some decent momentum into today’s US payrolls risk event. The remarkable rebound in US equities since the post-'Liberation Day' turmoil alongside Treasury yields settling lower have signalled that the “sell America” fears have been largely quelled.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Padhraic Garvey |Chris Turner
Fed officials remain wary of cutting rates too soon Despite overt pressure from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut the policy rate, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged at the 7 May FOMC meeting.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Chris Turner |František Táborský |Francesco Pesole
Whether it has been the approach of public holidays or some real improvement in the global geopolitical environment, cross-market measures of financial volatility continue to fall. US equities have now nearly retraced 90% of their drop in the aftermath of 'Liberation Day', with Meta and MSFT delivering decent 1Q results overnight. Amazon and Apple report today.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Francesco Pesole |Chris Turner
Today's headline number in Central and Eastern Europe will be Poland's April inflation, which is always the first inflation number to be released for the region. This time, it'll receive special market attention due to next week's National Bank of Poland meeting. According to statements made by several central bank council members, the level of inflation in April is set to determine the size of the central bank's next rate cut.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Francesco Pesole |František Táborský |Chris Turner
USD: A few days of key data ahead The dollar’s underwhelming start of the week served as a reminder that even if the worst of the confidence crisis on the dollar’s reserve value may be past us, markets remain very much minded to link the greenback’s faith with US economic performance. A week full of data releases may offer multiple opportunities to re-enter dollar shorts after some positioning rebalancing last week.
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2 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Chris Turner |František Táborský |Francesco Pesole
It's been a quiet start to the week in financial markets, with cross-market levels of volatility falling. There has not been too much tariff-related news over the weekend, although it does seem US consumers could soon start to feel the bite. Reports suggest that Chinese fashion retailer Shein is raising prices for US consumers by up to 300%, while logistics groups are starting to report a slump in US air freight and container imports.
