Articles
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2 days ago |
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Is that your final answer? This week, we aired our very own version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”. Ok, maybe it wasn’t quite called that. Mainly because we didn’t have a million pounds to give away (maybe next time, ING bosses?). But our central bank webinar did have “50:50”, which, in case you hadn’t realised, is how we economists forecast virtually everything. And it even had a phone-a-friend. Well, it had Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley. And they were both on the phone.
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3 days ago |
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Carsten Brzeski |Chris Turner |James Smith
The Trump administration appears to be powering through on its promise to impose sweeping tariff measures despite recent court rulings contesting their legality, but the form they’re set to take remains deeply unclear. How these developments will feed through into the global economy is yet to be determined, but what we do know is that the uncertainty is taking a toll on consumer and business sentiment, fuelling market volatility, and complicating the work of central bankers.
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1 week ago |
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Carsten Brzeski |Peter Vanden Houte
Shaking it all about You put your whole tariff in, your whole tariff out. It's getting a bit like that, right? This week’s bombshell verdict from a New York Trade Court, ruling a large chunk of President Trump’s tariffs illegal, certainly opens the door to a whole range of new possibilities. Does this offer the Administration the political cover it quietly needs in order to de-escalate on tariffs and limit the economic fallout?
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2 weeks ago |
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Carsten Brzeski |Chris Turner
Has the climbdown in US-China tariffs saved the global economy from a painful recession? Do the major central banks no longer need to cut interest rates? Get the answers to these questions and more in our live webinar, looking ahead to the June Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings. And of course, we'll look at what it all means for financial markets.
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2 weeks ago |
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
I kid you not, the draft of this week’s article started with the line “Good news, folks, no tariff chat this week!”. Sadly, that was before the President threatened 25% tariffs on iPhones and 50% on everything from the EU. Doh! Investors have found a new thing to worry about... I’ll stick to my word, though, because if tariffs weren’t enough, this week investors found yet another thing to worry about: the US deficit.
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That big rise in UK services inflation was almost entirely down to road tax and Easter. It should fall back 5.4% in April to the 4.5% area this summer https://t.co/yaOZr5MVNC
Tomorrow’s inflation data looks highly unpredictable. But the story on services inflation is getting better and should continue to improve into the summer, enabling the BoE to cut rates further (though maybe not faster) than markets expect https://t.co/ZazsBRBTTI
RT @LBC: 'Is it fair to say that sucking up by offering a state visit to Donald Trump actually paid off?' Economist James Smith tells @Ali…