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Dec 4, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier
There is no longer a government in France As expected, French MPs decided on Wednesday evening to vote a motion of no confidence in the government led by Michel Barnier. 331 MPs from the left and far right voted in unison, and the government fell, less than three months after it was set up. France is thus entering a new era of political instability.
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Dec 3, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier |Chris Turner
France The fall of Barnier’s government would be bad news for the French economy A motion of censure backed by left-wing and far-right MPs is expected to bring down the Barnier government before the end of the week Motion of no confidence On Monday, faced with the impossibility of passing the social security budget, and despite the many concessions made to the far right, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier decided to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to force...
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Nov 21, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier
The French business climate darkened again in November, dropping one point compared with October to stand at 96, below its long-term average. From a sectoral point of view, business sentiment rebounded in industry, but the rebound did not wipe out the huge fall seen in October, and confidence remains weak. By contrast, business sentiment fell in all other sectors. In services, the indicator fell by two points, due to a deterioration in the outlook for activity and demand.
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Oct 24, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier
According to figures published by INSEE, the business climate in France fell in October to 97, down by one point over the month. This decline is due to a significant drop in business sentiment in industry, with the indicator for the sector losing seven points over the month. Excluding the pandemic, this is the sharpest monthly fall since November 2008. Manufacturers are reporting a sharp fall in past production, production expectations and new orders.
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Sep 30, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier |Michiel Tukker
Numerous ideas are circulating for limiting the public deficit over the next few years, but the final decisions have yet to be unveiled. It seems clear that restoring public finances will primarily involve cutting spending, but it is not yet clear how this will be achieved.
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Sep 27, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier
France French inflation sees a sharp downward surprise Inflation in France surprised to the downside in September and should continue to moderate French inflation well below the 2% mark French inflation came in at 1.2% in September, down from 1.8% in August and much lower than expected. Inflation according to the harmonised index stood at 1.5% in September, compared with 2.2% the previous month.
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Sep 26, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier
Switzerland A very dovish 25bp rate cut by the Swiss National Bank The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has cut its key rate by 25bp to 1% and hinted at further rate cuts to come Inflation forecasts still lower The Swiss National Bank has cut its key rate by 25bp to 1% as expected, given the sharp fall in inflationary pressures.
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Sep 24, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier |Chris Turner
While inflation is no longer a problem, the strength of the Swiss franc has become a very clear one for Swiss exporters, who are becoming increasingly vocal on the subject. Last week, the Swiss watch industry made a direct appeal to the SNB to ensure that the Swiss franc weakens. Over the summer, EUR/CHF reached 0.93, close to the all-time low reached at the end of 2023. The value of the Swiss franc has since eased slightly, but remains very high.
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Sep 20, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Peter Vanden Houte |Charlotte de Montpellier
THINK Ahead: 50 basis point rate cuts? How about 200 Here’s a question: should the Federal Reserve have cut rates by 200 basis points this week? Before you tell me I’ve taken leave of my senses, let me explain the logic of this week’s little thought experiment:The Fed has told us it wants to get rates back to 3%, which it reckons is neither restrictive nor accommodative for the economy. Chair Powell has said in no uncertain terms that he doesn’t welcome any further weakness in the US jobs market.
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Sep 5, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Charlotte de Montpellier
If Michel Barnier's government is indeed installed, it will have to get to work very quickly on drawing up the 2025 budget. Under the French Constitution, the government must present its budget to the High Council for Public Finance by 15 September. It must then be submitted to the National Assembly before 1 October, when parliamentarians have 70 days to vote on the budget bill.
