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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Carsten Brzeski |Peter Vanden Houte
Shaking it all about You put your whole tariff in, your whole tariff out. It's getting a bit like that, right? This week’s bombshell verdict from a New York Trade Court, ruling a large chunk of President Trump’s tariffs illegal, certainly opens the door to a whole range of new possibilities. Does this offer the Administration the political cover it quietly needs in order to de-escalate on tariffs and limit the economic fallout?
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski |Inga Fechner |Peter Vanden Houte |Bert Colijn
Trump's tariffs and what they mean for Europe
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2 months ago | 
flipboard.com | Carsten Brzeski |Inga Fechner |Peter Vanden Houte |Bert Colijn
3 hours agoBizarre moment Trump declares Great Depression wouldn’t have happened with tariffsDonald Trump has declared that the US could have avoided the Great Depression with tariffs. The president made the remarks in front of the White House on Wednesday (2 April), when he announced a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the US. During his speech, Trump suggested the economic decline in the country began in 1913, when income tax was introduced.
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Jan 8, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Peter Vanden Houte |Lynn Song |František Táborský
United States Recent business surveys suggest that the clean election outcome has led companies that delayed investment and hiring due to election/regulatory uncertainty to start putting money to work. Confirmation of an ongoing low taxation environment should also support growth. However, there are risks too from President-elect Trump’s policy proposals. Significant immigration controls could create labour shortages that constrain growth and push up wages in some areas of the economy.
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Jan 7, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Peter Vanden Houte
Eurozone inflation increases for the third month in a row Eurozone headline inflation rose to 2.4% in December, with core inflation stabilising at 2.7%. A further increase in the first quarter looks likely.
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Dec 5, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski |Bert Colijn |Peter Vanden Houte
Call 1: Southern member states will over-perform for the fifth consecutive year Remember that horrible acronym PIGS, used to describe the southern Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member states being targeted by financial markets during the euro crisis? How times have changed. Over the last four years, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain have outpaced the eurozone’s average growth. And this trend is expected to continue next year.
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Dec 5, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Carsten Brzeski |James Knightley |Peter Vanden Houte |James Smith
United States Donald Trump has been quick to name his cabinet picks as he looks to deliver on his key election promises of tax cuts, immigration controls, tariffs to incentivise re-shoring and cost-cutting efficiency savings to rein in the deficit. Tax cuts and immigration restrictions are the easiest to make early progress on, while the speed and scale of tariff hikes remain open for debate.
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Nov 7, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Peter Vanden Houte
The fourth quarter started with rather muted sentiment data. The PMI composite increased marginally but remained in contraction territory, while the European Commission’s sentiment indicator fell in October. The inventory correction in manufacturing is still ongoing, with orders declining. At the same time, the growth pace in services is softening.
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Oct 10, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Peter Vanden Houte
A hesitant consumer It looks as if the eurozone is again headed for a winter slowdown. Both the PMI and the European Commission’s sentiment indicator lost ground in September, meaning that the fourth quarter is starting on a weak footing. The hope for a revival of household consumption on the back of higher real wages should be tempered, as the savings ratio increased for the eighth consecutive quarter from April to June.
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Sep 20, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Peter Vanden Houte |Charlotte de Montpellier
THINK Ahead: 50 basis point rate cuts? How about 200 Here’s a question: should the Federal Reserve have cut rates by 200 basis points this week? Before you tell me I’ve taken leave of my senses, let me explain the logic of this week’s little thought experiment:The Fed has told us it wants to get rates back to 3%, which it reckons is neither restrictive nor accommodative for the economy. Chair Powell has said in no uncertain terms that he doesn’t welcome any further weakness in the US jobs market.
