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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | Dmitry Dolgin |James WIlson |James Wilson
ArmeniaAzerbaijanKazakhstan... The CIS is facing the new round of global uncertainties mostly in a decent shape. Commodity exporters should be able to benefit, but oil breakevens and currency valuations need watching.
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Jan 17, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Dmitry Dolgin
The National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 15.25%, aligning with consensus and our expectations. Importantly, the NBRK reinforced its hawkish stance, indicating that it will assess the need for additional monetary tightening at upcoming meetings, suggesting the likelihood of a rate hike. The NBRK appears increasingly concerned with the CPI trajectory.
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Nov 1, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Dmitry Dolgin
VideoFXChinaIndiaBrazil... Watch: The dollar’s dominance is secure, despite BRICS countries’ hopes The American dollar’s position as the world’s preferred reserve currency is not in immediate danger. But might that one day be threatened by emerging market countries, notably the BRICS bloc? ING’s Dmitry Dolgin explains what’s going on.
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Oct 23, 2024 | 
flipboard.com | Dmitry Dolgin |Chris Turner
Elon MuskNowAny other CEO would have been fired for what Elon Musk just saidCNN • 22mNew York CNN — Part of the deal with being CEO is that you get a big paycheck in exchange for being the public face of a company. For most people, at most companies, that means, at minimum, trying not to make an ass of yourself in public.
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Oct 23, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Dmitry Dolgin |Chris Turner
This week Russia hosts the BRICS summit in Kazan. Unlike last year’s meeting, which largely focused on substantial expansion of the block, reports suggest that the focus of this year’s meeting will largely be on further internal integration – especially trade. At the heart of the trade focus lies the political priority of the block reducing its reliance on the dollar. Notably – and realistically – President Putin seems to have kicked the idea of a single BRICS currency into the long grass.
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Oct 1, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Dmitry Dolgin |James WIlson |James Wilson
CreditArmeniaAzerbaijanKazakhstan... CIS macro and credit: Fiscal side back in the spotlight In line with our initial view at the start of last year, the CIS-4 countries continue to show signs of fiscal easing, which is leading to upward revisions in projected CPI and key rate trajectories and, in some cases, to a deterioration in the FX rate views.
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Sep 5, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Dmitry Dolgin |Padhraic Garvey
We sense that Trump’s policy proposals could help to support domestic demand via lower taxes, but there are upside risks for inflation relative to Harris’ proposals. Tariffs and trade barriers will push up business costs, while intensified immigration controls may limit labour supply growth. This environment is likely to mean monetary policy needs to be kept tighter than would otherwise be under Harris, where tax hikes could weigh on activity.
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Aug 2, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Chris Turner |Dmitry Dolgin
Unpeeling the carry trade onion Financial market headlines have been dominated this year by the successful investment strategy of the carry trade. This strategy involves borrowing cheaply in yen - on the expectation that the yen will continue to fall - and investing in some high-yielding currency or asset preferably backed by a strong macro argument - like the Mexican peso.
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Jul 17, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Dmitry Dolgin |Padhraic Garvey
Fiscal sustainability is being questioned This year’s election is set against a backdrop where the government is borrowing the equivalent of 6% of GDP and the national debt totals $35tr. 24 years ago, the economy posted similar GDP growth rates to today and unemployment was also around the 4% mark, yet the US was running a fiscal surplus of 2% of GDP and debt stood at less than $6tr.
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Jul 2, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Rebecca Byrne |Chris Turner |Rafal Benecki |Dmitry Dolgin
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are largely in recovery mode. Slowing inflation and rising real wages have boosted consumer spending, which should continue to support GDP growth well into 2025. Meanwhile, on the investment front, the region is drawing substantial interest from large multinational corporations, as its strategic location, low cost base, and skilled workforce position it as an ideal hub for nearshoring. The benefits of EU accession have been tangible across the board.
