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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
The Hungarian Central Statistical Office will release the detailed GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 on 4 March, which will be a really important milestone. This will give us a better idea of whether there are signs of life in investment activity and whether the positive momentum in consumption has been maintained. If we see weak domestic demand, that could be another nail in the coffin of the government's plan for a flying start to 2025.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
Consensus forecasts for 2025 GDP growth (%)
Poland: Economic growth outshines CEE peers December's monthly data and the preliminary estimate for 2024 GDP suggest that the Polish economy resumed its recovery in the fourth quarter of last year after a weaker third quarter. Retail sales also resumed growth after a soft third quarter.
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak |James WIlson |James Wilson
Fiscal policy: Lower deficit but all eyes on the presidential election Public finances by our estimates ended last year with a deficit of 6.1% of GDP, the highest since the Covid-impacted 2020. For this year, we expect the deficit to narrow only slightly to 5.5% of GDP. While last year fiscal risks were to the upside, we see them as more balanced this year.
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Jan 16, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak
Poland Poland holds rates flat with a more hawkish statement January’s National Bank of Poland policy decision brought no surprises as rates were kept on hold, but the post-meeting press release better reflects the hawkish pivot the central bank governor made in December than the actual December release. The Monetary Policy Council is now firmly hawkish and suggests a delay in the beginning of policy easing cycle.
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Jan 15, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak
Poland Poland’s CPI inflation revised down on lower core inflation Poland’s December CPI was revised down to 4.7% year-on-year from the initial flash estimate of 4.8% due to a lower-than-expected increase in core prices. Despite the projected increase in headline inflation in 1Q25, the overall outlook is improving and an expected moderation of price growth in 2H25 offers some room for rate cuts.
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Jan 13, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant |Valentin Tataru
FXFX Talking EMEA FX Talking: CEE currencies are coping admirably Even though a weaker EUR/USD is normally associated with CEE underperformance, this time, the currency bloc is performing better. This is helping the likes of the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna are the less dovish central bankers - after all they started their easing cycle much earlier than in the developed space.
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Nov 28, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak
Poland Sharp slowdown in Poland’s third-quarter consumption The September flood in southern Poland probably impacted the third-quarter GDP composition as household consumption slowed sharply, while a change in inventories became the main source of growth. The scale of the rebound in retail sales is insufficient to give confidence in consumption.
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Nov 26, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak
Retail sales of goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year in October (ING: 2.2% YoY; consensus: 0.5%) after a very weak September, when sales fell by 3.0% YoY. Seasonally adjusted data indicate a 5.6% month-on-month growth in sales, following a 6.7% MoM decline in September, so the bounceback from the last month of the third quarter was not full. On an annual basis, there were improvements in many categories.
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Nov 21, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak
Polish investment activity remains subdued The recession in Poland’s construction sector worsened in October, indicating that investment activity remained subdued in early 4Q2024. For economic growth to accelerate, a rebound in fixed investment is needed in 2025, as consumption is expected to slow.
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Nov 15, 2024 | 
think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak
Poland Polish inflation rises as energy price freeze extended into 2025 We have confirmation that Polish CPI rose to 5% YoY in October despite some moderation in core inflation. Authorities plan to extend the electricity price freeze into 2025, which improves the inflation outlook but it’s unlikely to change monetary policy prospects.
