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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | Muhammet Mercan |František Táborský |James WIlson |James Wilson
Turkey's economy at a glance In the absence of any further exchange rate shock, large wage adjustments, unexpected hikes in administered prices, or jumps in commodity prices in the remainder of this year, we continue to expect inflation below 30.0%. While the deterioration in the inflation expectations is relatively contained after the March volatility, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has prioritised financial stability after large reserve depletion.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | Dmitry Dolgin |James WIlson |James Wilson
ArmeniaAzerbaijanKazakhstan... The CIS is facing the new round of global uncertainties mostly in a decent shape. Commodity exporters should be able to benefit, but oil breakevens and currency valuations need watching.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James WIlson |James Wilson
South Africa South Africa's finance minister presented a revised budget today, but the compromises so far are not enough to convince coalition partners South Africa’s finance minister Enoch Godongwana today presented the country’s 2025 budget, having already delayed the process from 19 February amid disagreements within the ruling Government of National Unity (GNU).
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | Muhammet Mercan |František Táborský |James WIlson |James Wilson
Turkey's economy at a glance Economic data for the fourth quarter of 2024 shows domestic demand recovering despite tight monetary policies. Private consumption reached a record high after declines in mid-2024, while net exports made a negative contribution to growth. Indicators suggest GDP growth will continue to recover in early 2025, though the central bank considers demand conditions to support lower inflation.
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Feb 12, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | Muhammet Mercan |František Táborský |James WIlson |James Wilson
Turkey's economy at a glance In its first inflation report of this year, the CBT raised its inflation forecast again from 21% to 24%, while keeping its 2026 forecast unchanged at 12%. The revision for this year is attributable to a) an increase in the weight for services (0.8ppt), b) a revision in the projections for food inflation (to 24.5% from 22.5%, lifting the forecast by 0.5ppt) and c) administered price hikes (1.7ppt).
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Peter Virovacz |James WIlson |James Wilson
Fiscal policy: Efforts to consolidate while the election campaign began According to preliminary finance ministry numbers, public finances ended last year in deficit at 4.8% of GDP against a plan of 4.5% and down sharply from 2023's 6.7% of GDP. For next year, the planned government accrual deficit target remains at 3.7% and the cash flow deficit at 4.8% of GDP. The expected slippage is 0.3-0.5% of GDP, mainly due to our different macroeconomic outlook, but we see this as a manageable risk.
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |Adam Antoniak |James WIlson |James Wilson
Fiscal policy: Lower deficit but all eyes on the presidential election Public finances by our estimates ended last year with a deficit of 6.1% of GDP, the highest since the Covid-impacted 2020. For this year, we expect the deficit to narrow only slightly to 5.5% of GDP. While last year fiscal risks were to the upside, we see them as more balanced this year.
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Valentin Tataru |James WIlson |James Wilson
Fiscal policy: Another challenging year According to Romania's Ministry of Finance, the country's public finances ended last year with a deficit of 8.6% of GDP, the highest since Covid in 2020. For this year, the budget is currently in the approval process, but the government is forecasting a consolidation to 7.0% of GDP, which is our forecast for now as well, equivalent to RON133bn in cash terms.
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |James WIlson |James Wilson
Report: CEE Issuance Outlook 2025 Consolidation of public finances is being postponed and the combination of high debt service costs and the redemption calendars further increases borrowing needs across the board. Declining external demand and an unfavourable global environment are forcing governments to shift to local sources of funding, increasing gross local currency issuance in most countries.
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Muhammet Mercan |James WIlson |James Wilson
Given inflation and the rapidly rising debt service, we expect a massive increase in gross borrowing needs this year despite a narrower fiscal deficit than last year. Our forecast shows a 33% increase in needs, from TRY2,494bn to TRY3,313bn. However, in terms of GDP, they decrease slightly from 5.9% to 5.8%, aligning with the five-year average.
