Inne Vanderkelen

1 month ago | nature.com | Luke Grant |Inne Vanderkelen |Lukas Gudmundsson |Erich Fischer |Sonia I. Seneviratne |Wim Thiery

Climate extremes are escalating under anthropogenic climate change1. Yet, how this translates into unprecedented cumulative extreme event exposure in a person’s lifetime remains unclear. Here we use climate models, impact models and demographic data to project the number of people experiencing cumulative lifetime exposure to climate extremes above the 99.99th percentile of exposure expected in a pre-industrial climate. We project that the birth cohort fraction facing this unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones will at least double from 1960 to 2020 under current mitigation policies aligned with a global warming pathway reaching 2.7 °C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves. If global warming reaches 3.5 °C by 2100, this fraction rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods. The chance of facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves is substantially larger among population groups characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Our results call for deep and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions to lower the burden of climate change on current young generations. Climate models, impact models and demographic data are used to estimate the number of people projected to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme climate events across multiple dimensions, including birth year, warming scenario and vulnerability.

Aug 25, 2023 | scholarsarchive.byu.edu | Inne Vanderkelen

Home > Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering > iEMSs Conference > 2020 > STREAM-F > 23 Keywords inland waters, heat uptake, ISIMIP, global lake models, global hydrological models COinS Sep 17th, 1:40 PM Sep 17th, 2:00 PM Global heat uptake by inland waters Heat uptake is a key variable for understanding Earth system response to greenhouse gas forcing. Recent assessments highlighted that most of the excess energy is stored in the oceans, whereas the land, atmosphere and ice melt...

Aug 25, 2023 | scholarsarchive.byu.edu | Inne Vanderkelen

Home > Engineering > Civil and Environmental Engineering > iEMSs Conference > 2020 > STREAM-E > 13 Keywords land surface models, reservoirs, land-climate feedbacks, human water management DOWNLOADS COinS Sep 15th, 1:40 PM Sep 15th, 2:00 PM Implementing the role of reservoirs in the CTSM land surface model By now, humans have constructed more than 45 000 large reservoirs across the globe. These reservoirs have large impacts on freshwater processes and resources. However, so far the impact of...

Aug 5, 2023 | scholarsarchive.byu.edu | Seppe Lampe |Bertrand Le Saux |Inne Vanderkelen |Wim Thiery

AbstractThe absence of a global long-term burned area dataset significantly hampers analyses of longterm trends in wildfire impacts. This prevents conclusive statements on the role of anthropogenic activity on wildfire impacts over the last century. Here, we construct a 1901-2014 data-driven reanalysis of monthly global burned area at a 0.5° by 0.5° scale.