Lukas Gudmundsson

1 month ago | nature.com | Luke Grant |Inne Vanderkelen |Lukas Gudmundsson |Erich Fischer |Sonia I. Seneviratne |Wim Thiery

Climate extremes are escalating under anthropogenic climate change1. Yet, how this translates into unprecedented cumulative extreme event exposure in a person’s lifetime remains unclear. Here we use climate models, impact models and demographic data to project the number of people experiencing cumulative lifetime exposure to climate extremes above the 99.99th percentile of exposure expected in a pre-industrial climate. We project that the birth cohort fraction facing this unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones will at least double from 1960 to 2020 under current mitigation policies aligned with a global warming pathway reaching 2.7 °C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves. If global warming reaches 3.5 °C by 2100, this fraction rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods. The chance of facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves is substantially larger among population groups characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Our results call for deep and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions to lower the burden of climate change on current young generations. Climate models, impact models and demographic data are used to estimate the number of people projected to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme climate events across multiple dimensions, including birth year, warming scenario and vulnerability.

Nov 20, 2024 | nature.com | Jonas Schwaab |Mathias Hauser |Lukas Gudmundsson |Yann Quilcaille |Quentin Lejeune |Joeri Rogelj

AbstractDue to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts.

Oct 21, 2024 | nature.com | Chantelle Burton |Seppe Lampe |Douglas Kelley |Wim Thiery |Stijn Hantson |Lukas Gudmundsson | +11 more

AbstractFire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models.

May 31, 2023 | nature.com | Philippe Ciais |Mengxi Wu |Pierre Friedlingstein |Lukas Gudmundsson |Laibao Liu

CGRAnnual global atmospheric CGR spanning from 1960 to 2018 is obtained from the Greenhouse Gas Marine Boundary Layer Reference of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/ESRL)50. According to the guideline, the annual CGR in a given year is the difference in CO2 concentration between the end of December and the start of January of that year.