Wim Thiery

1 month ago | nature.com | Luke Grant |Inne Vanderkelen |Lukas Gudmundsson |Erich Fischer |Sonia I. Seneviratne |Wim Thiery

Climate extremes are escalating under anthropogenic climate change1. Yet, how this translates into unprecedented cumulative extreme event exposure in a person’s lifetime remains unclear. Here we use climate models, impact models and demographic data to project the number of people experiencing cumulative lifetime exposure to climate extremes above the 99.99th percentile of exposure expected in a pre-industrial climate. We project that the birth cohort fraction facing this unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones will at least double from 1960 to 2020 under current mitigation policies aligned with a global warming pathway reaching 2.7 °C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Under a 1.5 °C pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves. If global warming reaches 3.5 °C by 2100, this fraction rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods. The chance of facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves is substantially larger among population groups characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Our results call for deep and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions to lower the burden of climate change on current young generations. Climate models, impact models and demographic data are used to estimate the number of people projected to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme climate events across multiple dimensions, including birth year, warming scenario and vulnerability.

Oct 21, 2024 | nature.com | Chantelle Burton |Seppe Lampe |Douglas Kelley |Wim Thiery |Stijn Hantson |Lukas Gudmundsson | +11 more

AbstractFire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models.

Feb 7, 2024 | nature.com | Diana Erazo |Luke Grant |Giovanni Marini |William Wint |Wim Van Bortel |Nathan D. Grubaugh | +2 more

AbstractWest Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes.

Sep 13, 2023 | nature.com | Wim Thiery |François Massonnet |Denis Michez |Guillaume Ghisbain

AbstractHabitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1,2,3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4,5,6,7,8.

Sep 7, 2023 | nature.com | Wim Thiery |Yassmin H. Essa |Martin Hirschi |Ahmed M. El-Kenawy

AbstractThe present work aims to address the physical properties of different drought types under near-future climates in the Mediterranean.