David Havrlant

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |David Havrlant

THINK Ahead in developed markets United States Powell's testimony (Tues): The main event will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony to Congress. In a highly partisan environment, he will face criticism from certain members of the Republican Party for not cutting interest rates, aligning with the views of President Trump.

2 weeks ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz |Stefan Posea

Czech Republic: Strong consumer shadow lukewarm investment appetite The Czech economy did well over the start of the year when it came to wage increases and overall GDP growth figures, and the expansion is set to carry on over the subsequent quarters. However, there are some soft spots when looking into the details, such as almost stagnant household consumption in quarterly terms and barely growing fixed investment over the medium term.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz

Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | David Havrlant |František Táborský

Rate cut when headline inflation is below target The new CNB forecast accommodates one more cut Fading investments and a lack of courage threaten future growth Our market views Rate cut when headline inflation is below target The Czech base rate was reduced by 25bp to 3.5%, and the cutting cycle seems to be approaching its final destination in the current conditions.

2 months ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant

The week where everything - and nothing - changed Here are just a few things that changed in financial markets this week: US 10-year Treasury yields are up more than 40 basis points. That sort of week-on-week increase hasn’t happened since the early 2000s. The dollar is almost 4% weaker against the euro. More than a percentage point of that has happened since I started typing this earlier today. The S&P 500 is almost 4% higher, too.