David Havrlant

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant

The week where everything - and nothing - changed Here are just a few things that changed in financial markets this week: US 10-year Treasury yields are up more than 40 basis points. That sort of week-on-week increase hasn’t happened since the early 2000s. The dollar is almost 4% weaker against the euro. More than a percentage point of that has happened since I started typing this earlier today. The S&P 500 is almost 4% higher, too.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | David Havrlant |František Táborský

Punchy economic performance can feed inflation Our outlook for Czechia's economic performance received a non-negligible boost recently, with real GDP growth lifted to 2.4% for this year (from 2.1%) and to 2.7% for next year (from 2.5%). This year’s change is mainly driven by the revision in 2024, carrying a more upbeat performance towards the year-end.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant

How bankers can inject more rizz Central banks are good for many things, but talking the language of the Instagram generation sadly isn’t one of them. Few things are less welcome on TikTok than a monetary policy statement. It’s like sliding into your DMs using a fax machine. It’s time to get down with the kids, guys. Here’s how the central banks can inject more rizz into next week’s flurry of rate decisions. [Rizz = charisma, boomer!].

1 month ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant

THINK Ahead in developed markets United States (James Knightley) This week promises to be significant for the US, with potential trade tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada coming into effect while there are some very important data releases, including the February jobs report. President Trump has moved the date around, but at the time of writing trade tariffs are set to start from 4 March.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz

The Hungarian Central Statistical Office will release the detailed GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 on 4 March, which will be a really important milestone. This will give us a better idea of whether there are signs of life in investment activity and whether the positive momentum in consumption has been maintained. If we see weak domestic demand, that could be another nail in the coffin of the government's plan for a flying start to 2025.