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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | David Havrlant |František Táborský
Rate cut when headline inflation is below target
The new CNB forecast accommodates one more cut
Fading investments and a lack of courage threaten future growth
Our market views
Rate cut when headline inflation is below target The Czech base rate was reduced by 25bp to 3.5%, and the cutting cycle seems to be approaching its final destination in the current conditions.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant
The week where everything - and nothing - changed Here are just a few things that changed in financial markets this week: US 10-year Treasury yields are up more than 40 basis points. That sort of week-on-week increase hasn’t happened since the early 2000s. The dollar is almost 4% weaker against the euro. More than a percentage point of that has happened since I started typing this earlier today. The S&P 500 is almost 4% higher, too.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | David Havrlant |František Táborský
Punchy economic performance can feed inflation Our outlook for Czechia's economic performance received a non-negligible boost recently, with real GDP growth lifted to 2.4% for this year (from 2.1%) and to 2.7% for next year (from 2.5%). This year’s change is mainly driven by the revision in 2024, carrying a more upbeat performance towards the year-end.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant
How bankers can inject more rizz Central banks are good for many things, but talking the language of the Instagram generation sadly isn’t one of them. Few things are less welcome on TikTok than a monetary policy statement. It’s like sliding into your DMs using a fax machine. It’s time to get down with the kids, guys. Here’s how the central banks can inject more rizz into next week’s flurry of rate decisions. [Rizz = charisma, boomer!].
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Feb 28, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant
THINK Ahead in developed markets United States (James Knightley) This week promises to be significant for the US, with potential trade tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada coming into effect while there are some very important data releases, including the February jobs report. President Trump has moved the date around, but at the time of writing trade tariffs are set to start from 4 March.
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Feb 27, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
The Hungarian Central Statistical Office will release the detailed GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2024 on 4 March, which will be a really important milestone. This will give us a better idea of whether there are signs of life in investment activity and whether the positive momentum in consumption has been maintained. If we see weak domestic demand, that could be another nail in the coffin of the government's plan for a flying start to 2025.
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Feb 6, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Rafal Benecki |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
Consensus forecasts for 2025 GDP growth (%)
Poland: Economic growth outshines CEE peers December's monthly data and the preliminary estimate for 2024 GDP suggest that the Polish economy resumed its recovery in the fourth quarter of last year after a weaker third quarter. Retail sales also resumed growth after a soft third quarter.
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Feb 2, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | David Havrlant |František Táborský
Inflation set to slow down, but upward risks are behind the scenes Rising production costs to be taken seriously as margins shrink Czech economic recovery so far on track The free, the constrained, and those between the two Our market view Inflation set to slow down, but upward risks are behind the scenes Headline inflation likely softened in January, which will be shown in the first flash CPI estimate, with 2.5% as our best guess. In contrast, core inflation likely picked up in the same...
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Jan 23, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |David Havrlant
Although the government continues its consolidation efforts this year and the deficit continues to narrow, higher redemptions will lift gross borrowing needs compared to last year. We expect an increase in borrowings from CZK530.7bn to CZK557.5bn (+5% YoY, 6.6% of GDP). Gross issuance of Czech government bonds (CZGBs) will rise slightly from CZK376.0bn to CZK416.2bn (+11%), but higher redemptions will keep net supply flat at CZK202.0bn.
