Bert Colijn

2 days ago | think.ing.com | Warren Patterson |Bert Colijn |Francesco Pesole |Rebecca Byrne

A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet the bombing campaigns are over, and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day, will remain undisturbed. The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year. But is the crisis really over?

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Bert Colijn |David Havrlant

THINK Ahead in developed markets United States Powell's testimony (Tues): The main event will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony to Congress. In a highly partisan environment, he will face criticism from certain members of the Republican Party for not cutting interest rates, aligning with the views of President Trump.

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | Bert Colijn |Carsten Brzeski

As mentioned above, there are clear signs of a turn in the inventory cycle. However, the next few months will show how much of this shift is structural and how much has been temporary due to the US frontloading. More generally speaking, it could also be that any inventory reduction will be less pronounced than in the past.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak

Room is spinning... Take a quick glance at financial markets, and you’ll be forgiven for thinking the last month didn’t happen. US equities are creeping ever closer to February’s high. Volatility is right down. And 2-year swap rates, an indication of Fed policy expectations, are where they were on the eve of ‘Liberation’ Day on 2 April. But is it really business as usual? The US-China deal is a game changer, there's no doubt about that.

2 months ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak

THINK Ahead It’s been six months since the great and the good of the finance world last met in Washington to chew on lukewarm canapes and sip decidedly average Champagne. I’m talking about the IMF’s annual meetings and, yes, maybe I’m still slightly bitter that I didn’t get the invite…Back then, the talk of the town was Donald Trump, whether he would win November’s election, and if he did, what would come first: tax cuts or tariffs? Well, I think we have our answer.