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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Valentin Tataru
What could go wrong? Folks, let me tell you, it’s huge. A biggly, very beautiful thing, announced just this Thursday. Some great people from great nations involved. Tremendous numbers, some say the best numbers we’ve ever seen; it’s incredible. I’m referring, of course, to the latest ING Monthly, hot off the press this week, containing all our new forecasts. Here are the headlines:No US or eurozone recession, though both are headed for stagnation.
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1 week ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.
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3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |František Táborský
How (not) to spot a recession What’s the probability of a recession? It’s a question we’re getting asked a lot, which is ironic really, given that we economists are famously… not very good at predicting recessions. That thing about “predicting nine out of the last five” is probably being generous. So it might surprise you that I’m not about to predict the tenth. Recession isn’t our team’s base case on either side of the Atlantic, though I think we’d concede it’s not a high-conviction call.
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4 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak
THINK Ahead It’s been six months since the great and the good of the finance world last met in Washington to chew on lukewarm canapes and sip decidedly average Champagne. I’m talking about the IMF’s annual meetings and, yes, maybe I’m still slightly bitter that I didn’t get the invite…Back then, the talk of the town was Donald Trump, whether he would win November’s election, and if he did, what would come first: tax cuts or tariffs? Well, I think we have our answer.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant
The week where everything - and nothing - changed Here are just a few things that changed in financial markets this week: US 10-year Treasury yields are up more than 40 basis points. That sort of week-on-week increase hasn’t happened since the early 2000s. The dollar is almost 4% weaker against the euro. More than a percentage point of that has happened since I started typing this earlier today. The S&P 500 is almost 4% higher, too.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Wanted! A superhero to save the markets Who is going to save the US stock market? I’ll admit, it’s not exactly the making of a Hollywood blockbuster. And if it was, the theme tune would presumably be played by a single, very tiny violin. Anyway, markets think they know the answer: Jerome Powell. As is so often the case when stocks wobble, investors are shining the proverbial bat signal at the night sky and waiting for their superhero to calm things down.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak
THINK Ahead: Trump's tariffs in ten questions Heading to a dinner party this weekend and dreading the small talk? I get it. At some point, people will realise you work in finance. Once they’ve stifled their yawns and mumbled something about “having an early start the next day,” they might be forced to engage you on the least boring topic that springs to mind. And that topic is inevitably going to be President Trump’s tariffs. Don’t panic! We’ve got you covered.
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1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
THINK Ahead: Europe's cold April shower Are we all becoming too optimistic about Europe? Bet you didn’t expect to see those eight words printed this year, did you? Neither did I, if I’m honest. We European economists don’t know what to do with ourselves; we simply aren’t programmed for these levels of unalloyed positivity. But two things can be true at once. The wave of fiscal activism unleashed by Germany’s spending splurge could genuinely lift the continent out of its decade-long malaise.
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant
How bankers can inject more rizz Central banks are good for many things, but talking the language of the Instagram generation sadly isn’t one of them. Few things are less welcome on TikTok than a monetary policy statement. It’s like sliding into your DMs using a fax machine. It’s time to get down with the kids, guys. Here’s how the central banks can inject more rizz into next week’s flurry of rate decisions. [Rizz = charisma, boomer!].
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2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
The week the Transatlantic tables turned For financial markets, this was the week where everything turned on its head. US economic exceptionalism – for weeks a key market driver – is under serious question. And Europe may just have found a way out of its seemingly endless doom-loop. The result? The Euro is more than four percent stronger against the dollar versus a week ago. German bund yields are almost 40bp higher too. Yet history tells us that things rarely play out the way we expect.
