Articles

  • 2 days ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz

    Is that your final answer? This week, we aired our very own version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”. Ok, maybe it wasn’t quite called that. Mainly because we didn’t have a million pounds to give away (maybe next time, ING bosses?). But our central bank webinar did have “50:50”, which, in case you hadn’t realised, is how we economists forecast virtually everything. And it even had a phone-a-friend. Well, it had Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley. And they were both on the phone.

  • 2 weeks ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz

    I kid you not, the draft of this week’s article started with the line “Good news, folks, no tariff chat this week!”. Sadly, that was before the President threatened 25% tariffs on iPhones and 50% on everything from the EU. Doh! Investors have found a new thing to worry about... I’ll stick to my word, though, because if tariffs weren’t enough, this week investors found yet another thing to worry about: the US deficit.

  • 3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak

    Room is spinning... Take a quick glance at financial markets, and you’ll be forgiven for thinking the last month didn’t happen. US equities are creeping ever closer to February’s high. Volatility is right down. And 2-year swap rates, an indication of Fed policy expectations, are where they were on the eve of ‘Liberation’ Day on 2 April. But is it really business as usual? The US-China deal is a game changer, there's no doubt about that.

  • 1 month ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Valentin Tataru

    What could go wrong? Folks, let me tell you, it’s huge. A biggly, very beautiful thing, announced just this Thursday. Some great people from great nations involved. Tremendous numbers, some say the best numbers we’ve ever seen; it’s incredible. I’m referring, of course, to the latest ING Monthly, hot off the press this week, containing all our new forecasts. Here are the headlines:No US or eurozone recession, though both are headed for stagnation.

  • 1 month ago | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz

    Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.

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