Adam Antoniak

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak

THINK Ahead It’s been six months since the great and the good of the finance world last met in Washington to chew on lukewarm canapes and sip decidedly average Champagne. I’m talking about the IMF’s annual meetings and, yes, maybe I’m still slightly bitter that I didn’t get the invite…Back then, the talk of the town was Donald Trump, whether he would win November’s election, and if he did, what would come first: tax cuts or tariffs? Well, I think we have our answer.

1 week ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant

The week where everything - and nothing - changed Here are just a few things that changed in financial markets this week: US 10-year Treasury yields are up more than 40 basis points. That sort of week-on-week increase hasn’t happened since the early 2000s. The dollar is almost 4% weaker against the euro. More than a percentage point of that has happened since I started typing this earlier today. The S&P 500 is almost 4% higher, too.

2 weeks ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz

Wanted! A superhero to save the markets Who is going to save the US stock market? I’ll admit, it’s not exactly the making of a Hollywood blockbuster. And if it was, the theme tune would presumably be played by a single, very tiny violin. Anyway, markets think they know the answer: Jerome Powell. As is so often the case when stocks wobble, investors are shining the proverbial bat signal at the night sky and waiting for their superhero to calm things down.

3 weeks ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak

THINK Ahead: Trump's tariffs in ten questions Heading to a dinner party this weekend and dreading the small talk? I get it. At some point, people will realise you work in finance. Once they’ve stifled their yawns and mumbled something about “having an early start the next day,” they might be forced to engage you on the least boring topic that springs to mind. And that topic is inevitably going to be President Trump’s tariffs. Don’t panic! We’ve got you covered.

1 month ago | think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz

THINK Ahead: Europe's cold April shower Are we all becoming too optimistic about Europe? Bet you didn’t expect to see those eight words printed this year, did you? Neither did I, if I’m honest. We European economists don’t know what to do with ourselves; we simply aren’t programmed for these levels of unalloyed positivity. But two things can be true at once. The wave of fiscal activism unleashed by Germany’s spending splurge could genuinely lift the continent out of its decade-long malaise.