-
3 weeks ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Is that your final answer? This week, we aired our very own version of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?”. Ok, maybe it wasn’t quite called that. Mainly because we didn’t have a million pounds to give away (maybe next time, ING bosses?). But our central bank webinar did have “50:50”, which, in case you hadn’t realised, is how we economists forecast virtually everything. And it even had a phone-a-friend. Well, it had Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley. And they were both on the phone.
-
1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
I kid you not, the draft of this week’s article started with the line “Good news, folks, no tariff chat this week!”. Sadly, that was before the President threatened 25% tariffs on iPhones and 50% on everything from the EU. Doh! Investors have found a new thing to worry about... I’ll stick to my word, though, because if tariffs weren’t enough, this week investors found yet another thing to worry about: the US deficit.
-
1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak
Room is spinning... Take a quick glance at financial markets, and you’ll be forgiven for thinking the last month didn’t happen. US equities are creeping ever closer to February’s high. Volatility is right down. And 2-year swap rates, an indication of Fed policy expectations, are where they were on the eve of ‘Liberation’ Day on 2 April. But is it really business as usual? The US-China deal is a game changer, there's no doubt about that.
-
1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Valentin Tataru
What could go wrong? Folks, let me tell you, it’s huge. A biggly, very beautiful thing, announced just this Thursday. Some great people from great nations involved. Tremendous numbers, some say the best numbers we’ve ever seen; it’s incredible. I’m referring, of course, to the latest ING Monthly, hot off the press this week, containing all our new forecasts. Here are the headlines:No US or eurozone recession, though both are headed for stagnation.
-
1 month ago | 
think.ing.com | František Táborský |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant |Peter Virovacz
Poland: Policymakers ready to start monetary easing Last month, we saw the hawkish bias from Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since December shift to a more dovish stance, as illustrated by the National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in the first quarter of the year, slowing core inflation, easing wage pressure and probably softer annual GDP growth than in last year's final quarter all bolster the argument for the adjustment.
-
2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |František Táborský
How (not) to spot a recession What’s the probability of a recession? It’s a question we’re getting asked a lot, which is ironic really, given that we economists are famously… not very good at predicting recessions. That thing about “predicting nine out of the last five” is probably being generous. So it might surprise you that I’m not about to predict the tenth. Recession isn’t our team’s base case on either side of the Atlantic, though I think we’d concede it’s not a high-conviction call.
-
2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak
THINK Ahead It’s been six months since the great and the good of the finance world last met in Washington to chew on lukewarm canapes and sip decidedly average Champagne. I’m talking about the IMF’s annual meetings and, yes, maybe I’m still slightly bitter that I didn’t get the invite…Back then, the talk of the town was Donald Trump, whether he would win November’s election, and if he did, what would come first: tax cuts or tariffs? Well, I think we have our answer.
-
2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |David Havrlant
The week where everything - and nothing - changed Here are just a few things that changed in financial markets this week: US 10-year Treasury yields are up more than 40 basis points. That sort of week-on-week increase hasn’t happened since the early 2000s. The dollar is almost 4% weaker against the euro. More than a percentage point of that has happened since I started typing this earlier today. The S&P 500 is almost 4% higher, too.
-
2 months ago | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz
Wanted! A superhero to save the markets Who is going to save the US stock market? I’ll admit, it’s not exactly the making of a Hollywood blockbuster. And if it was, the theme tune would presumably be played by a single, very tiny violin. Anyway, markets think they know the answer: Jerome Powell. As is so often the case when stocks wobble, investors are shining the proverbial bat signal at the night sky and waiting for their superhero to calm things down.
-
Mar 28, 2025 | 
think.ing.com | James Smith |James Knightley |Bert Colijn |Adam Antoniak
THINK Ahead: Trump's tariffs in ten questions Heading to a dinner party this weekend and dreading the small talk? I get it. At some point, people will realise you work in finance. Once they’ve stifled their yawns and mumbled something about “having an early start the next day,” they might be forced to engage you on the least boring topic that springs to mind. And that topic is inevitably going to be President Trump’s tariffs. Don’t panic! We’ve got you covered.
