Valentin Tataru

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Articles

Romania: Weak foundations make for a challenging issuance ahead

Jan 23, 2025 | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Valentin Tataru |James WIlson |James Wilson

Fiscal policy: Another challenging year According to Romania's Ministry of Finance, the country's public finances ended last year with a deficit of 8.6% of GDP, the highest since Covid in 2020. For this year, the budget is currently in the approval process, but the government is forecasting a consolidation to 7.0% of GDP, which is our forecast for now as well, equivalent to RON133bn in cash terms.
EMEA FX Talking: CEE currencies are coping admirably

Jan 13, 2025 | think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant |Valentin Tataru

FXFX Talking EMEA FX Talking: CEE currencies are coping admirably Even though a weaker EUR/USD is normally associated with CEE underperformance, this time, the currency bloc is performing better. This is helping the likes of the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna are the less dovish central bankers - after all they started their easing cycle much earlier than in the developed space.
THINK Ahead: Mixed inflation data

Jan 10, 2025 | think.ing.com | James Knightley |Adam Antoniak |Peter Virovacz |Valentin Tataru

THINK Ahead in developed markets United States (James Knightley) Markets are barely pricing two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year with Fed officials themselves suggesting they are of a similar mindset. President-elect Trump’s policy mix of low taxation and light touch regulations is thought to be supportive for growth in the near term while his focus on immigration controls and trade protectionism are likely to raise inflation pressures over the medium to longer term.
EMEA FX Talking: CEE in harm’s way

Nov 14, 2024 | think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant |Valentin Tataru

Main ING EMEA FX Forecasts EUR/CZK EUR/PLN EUR/HUF 1M 25.30 ↓ 4.37 ↑ 413 ↑ 3M 25.25 ↓ 4.40 ↑ 415 ↑ 6M 25.20 ↓ 4.40 ↑ 415 ↓ 12M 25.00 ↓ 4.40 ↓ 420 ↓ EUR/PLN: PLN should gain in the year end One month bias 1M 3M 6M 12M Mildly Bullish 4.37 4.40 4.40 4.40 Source: Refinitiv, ING forecasts EUR/HUF: Forint seeks a new anchor One month bias 1M 3M 6M 12M Mildly Bullish 412.00 415.00 415.00 420.00 Source: Refinitiv, ING forecasts EUR/CZK: A cautious approach to further easing will support koruna One...
Directional Economics Webinar: What you think of the hot topics in CEE

Jul 1, 2024 | think.ing.com | Valentin Tataru |Rafal Benecki |Peter Virovacz |David Havrlant

Here's what our audience said Nearly 300 people attended our Economics Live Webinar, where we discussed our latest Directional Economics report. We asked those attending what they thought of key topics such as nearshoring, the durability of Turkey's turnaround in economic policy and when Ukraine might enter the EU. Here's what they said. Do you see nearshoring as a major driver of CEE growth in the next five to ten years?
Why we shouldn’t be fooled by Romania’s lower April inflation figures

May 14, 2024 | think.ing.com | Valentin Tataru

Romania Why we shouldn’t be fooled by Romania’s lower April inflation figures Romania’s 5.9% headline figure came significantly lower than our 6.6% expectations and the 6.4% market consensus. On our side, the entire forecast error came from the large impact of lower energy price caps. Beyond that, however, there is not much to cheer about Romanian inflation decelerated to 5.9% in April from 6.6% in the previous month.
Inflation nears target in CEE region but central banks remain unsatisfied

Feb 8, 2024 | think.ing.com | Rafal Benecki |František Táborský |Valentin Tataru |Peter Virovacz

Poland: Gearing up for recovery According to the flash estimate, Poland's economy grew by 0.2% in 2023, following a GDP expansion of 5.3% in 2022. The recovery started in mid-2023 but then lost steam in the fourth quarter due to weaker consumption and sluggish production and exports. The data suggests that GDP grew by only 1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter vs 0.5% YoY in the third quarter of 2023.
Romania: Just slightly lower issuance than last year

Jan 25, 2024 | think.ing.com | František Táborský |Valentin Tataru |James WIlson |James Wilson

Fiscal policy: Election year puts budget deficit at risk According to the Ministry of Finance, the budget deficit last year ended below 5.7% of GDP after a bumpy road with an initial target of 4.4% of GDP. For this year, like the Ministry of Finance, we expect a 5.0% of GDP deficit, however, we see upside risks here given that this is an election year in Romania.
Growth in the Balkans: Between zero and hero

Jan 9, 2024 | think.ing.com | Valentin Tataru

The second half of 2023 came with some shivers for the Balkan countries that we cover, as their economies slowed down rather abruptly and the word 'recession' did not necessarily seem inappropriate at some point. While 2024 might look a touch better, the external context is not – especially the economic growth in the eurozone, their main trading partner.
Growth in the Balkans: Between zero and hero

Jan 9, 2024 | think.ing.com | Valentin Tataru

The second half of 2023 came with some shivers for the Balkan countries that we cover, as their economies slowed down rather abruptly and the word 'recession' did not necessarily seem inappropriate at some point. While 2024 might look a touch better, the external context is not – especially the economic growth in the eurozone, their main trading partner.