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Nov 4, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Geoffrey Skelley |Katie Marriner |Amina Brown
How this works: 538’s county-level benchmarks for the 2024 elections estimate what percentage of the vote Democrats or Republicans would need in each county for each statewide (or district-wide, in the cases of Maine and Nebraska) contest to be roughly tied.
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Nov 1, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Nathaniel Rakich |Amina Brown
8 p.m. EasternAlabama is one of the few states that still requires an excuse to vote absentee, so the vast majority of its votes (90+ percent) are cast in person. That should enable nearly all of its votes to be tallied on election night.
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Oct 29, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
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Sep 25, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Monica Potts |Katie Marriner
Trump is such a well-known quantity that voters are fairly set in how they feel about him. 538 maintains a running average of Trump’s net favorability rating — the difference between the average share of Americans who say they have a favorable view of the former president and the average share who say they have an unfavorable view. A negative net favorability rating means more Americans have an unfavorable view of him than a favorable one. What is Trump’s net favorability rating?
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Sep 9, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Amina Brown |Katie Marriner |Aaron Bycoffe |G. Elliott Morris
less than 1 out of 100
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Sep 4, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Cooper Burton |Kaleigh Rogers |Katie Marriner
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies. Vice President Kamala Harris launched her run for president just 107 days before Election Day, so she’s had to cram a lot of campaigning into the last few weeks. This includes reintroducing herself as a top-of-the-ticket candidate to voters and laying out her policy platform. She’s done much of this through speeches, including her nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.
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Jun 28, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Nathaniel Rakich |Aaron Bycoffe |Amina Brown
We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the candidates take the stage.
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Jun 11, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Aaron Bycoffe |G. Elliott Morris |Katie Marriner |Amina Brown
What are the closest races? Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome. A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
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Jun 11, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Aaron Bycoffe |G. Elliott Morris |Katie Marriner |Amina Brown
Why your vote matters in 2024 In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote. The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policyStates are voting on school choice and more in 2024. Why voting patterns may shift this election 538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
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Jun 11, 2024 | 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com | Aaron Bycoffe |G. Elliott Morris |Katie Marriner |Amina Brown
LAST UPDATED Oct. 25 Democrats, as we wrote Wednesday, will have a hard time keeping their majority in the U.S. Senate. But since we launched our Senate forecast, the party’s chances have worsened slightly. Several new polls released Thursday showed a tight race in Wisconsin, currently the second-closest seat in our forecast, as well as in Ohio, the closest and only pure toss-up state in our model.